Global risks of biological invasions of phytopathogenic organisms and improvement of the quarantine monitoring system using computer modeling

Abstract

As a result of assessing the distribution of adventitious species of phytopathogens on the territory of Belarus, a trend of increasing the number of recorded invasions was identified. Every year, an average of 3-4 new pathogens of infectious diseases of woody plants are identified in forests and gardens, and over the past 25 years, at least 57 new types of phytopathogens have been recorded. Many of the newly identified species have already passed the stage of acclimatization, and some have a significant impact on the sanitary condition of forests and parks, causing significant damage. With the Maxent software package, using the example of the phytopathogenic oomycete Phytophthora alni Brasier et S.A. Kirk, which is quarantined for the EAEU countries, a map of the current and future geographic distribution under various climate change scenarios was constructed. The models showed the suitability of the conditions of Belarus for the development of P. alni, which made it possible to conduct local forest pathological surveys and identify symptoms of alder late blight in various forest conditions of the country. Molecular genetic analysis confirmed the presence of a quarantine pathogen on the territory of Belarus. Forecasting the spread of the invader, on the one hand, shows a reduction in areas potentially suitable for the development of the species in Europe, and on the other hand, an increase in the likelihood of the invader moving to more northern areas. Considering the potentially high harmfulness of the species, immediate monitoring, analysis of phytosanitary risks and adoption of quarantine measures are already required.