Dynamics of forest fund lands of the Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus in areas of radioactive contamination

Abstract

On April 26, 2026, it will be 40 years since the largest man-made disaster of the 20th century – the acci dent at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP). As a result of this event, 20.1 thousand km² of Belarusian forests were contaminated with radioactive elements, accumulating up to 70% of the radionuclides that fell on the territory of the republic. Radioactive contamination of the land changed the natural properties of forest ecosystems, disrupted established forest management practices, and created a number of restrictions on forestry operations and multiple-use forest management. To ensure radiation safety for forestry workers, the population visiting forests, and consumers of forest products – and to obtain environmentally safe (normatively clean) products – annual updates of the radiation situation in forests have been conducted since 1993. This article studies the dynamics of changes in the forest fund area of the Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus in radioactive contamination zones from 1995 to 2025 and provides a forecast for 2046. It also presents the distribution of forestry enterprise territories by radioactive contamination zones as of January 1, 2025. The radiation situation in the radionuclide-contaminated areas is gradually stabilizing. The amount of cesium-137 in the soil decreases due to radioactive decay (about 2% per year) and absorption by vegetation. Over time, the area of each radioactive contamination zone decreases, with transitions occurring from zones of higher soil contamination density by cesium-137 to zones of lower density. As of January 1, 2025, the forest fund territory classified as radioactive contamination zones amounts to 1,203.0 thousand ha (13.91% of the total forest fund area). The main portion of the radioactive contamination area (842 thousand ha) belongs to Zone I (1–5 Ci/km²). From 1995 (1,747.1 thosand ha) to 2025, the area of radioactive contamination in the Ministry of Forestry’s forest fund decreased by 544.1 thousand ha, or 31%. By 2046, it is projected to decrease to 829.3 thousand ha, or 53% relative to the 1995 level. The ability to forecast changes in the area (zones) of radioactive contamination will make it possible to optimize planning of forestry operations in these territories